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Firmalar�n Sabit Sermaye Yatirim Kararlarinin Analizi : Turkiye Imalat Sanayine Dair Bulgular

Author

Listed:
  • Evren Erdogan Cosar

Abstract

Bu calismada Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi tarafindan yayimlanan Yatirim Anketi�nden alinan firmalarin kendi sabit sermaye yatirimlarina iliskin tahminleri panel veri teknikleri kullanilarak incelenmistir. Sonuclar tahminlerin rasyonel bir yapi sergilemedigine isaret ederken firmalarin tahminlerini olustururken bir onceki yil yaptiklari hatalari goz onunde bulundurduklarina isaret etmektedir. Firmalarin icinde bulunulan yil icin verdikleri tahminlere iliskin hatalarin ortanca degeri ve standart sapmasi, bir yil once verdikleri tahminlerinkinden daha dusuktur. Firmalarin tahmin verdikleri doneme kiyasla talep, finansman kaynaklari ve beklenen karlara iliskin goruslerindeki degisimler tahmin hatalari ile iliskili bulunmustur. Ekonomi genelini etkileyen bir kur belirsizligi, sektorel belirsizlik ve $/TL kurundaki degisimler yatirim harcamasi gerceklesmelerinin tahminlerin altinda kalmasina neden olurken firmaya ozgu belirsizligin tahmin hatalarina etkisi bulunmamistir. Bununla birlikte 2014-2015 doneminde kur belirsizligindeki artisin firmalarin yatirim kararlarini azaltici yonde etkilemedigi dikkat cekmektedir.

Suggested Citation

  • Evren Erdogan Cosar, 2016. "Firmalar�n Sabit Sermaye Yatirim Kararlarinin Analizi : Turkiye Imalat Sanayine Dair Bulgular," Working Papers 1616, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1616
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    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Research/Working+Paperss/2016/16-16
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Yatirim anketi; Rasyonel beklentiler; Uyarlanabilir beklentiler; Gerileyen beklentiler; Tahmin guncellemeleri; Belirsizlik;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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