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Turk Imalat Sanayi Sektorel Reel Efektif Doviz Kuru Endeksleri Uzerine Bir Degerlendirme

  • Hulya Saygili
  • Gokhan Yilmaz

Sektorlere ozgu rekabet ve dis ticaret ortaklarinin farklilastigi dusunuldugunde, sektorel reel kur endekslerinin imalat sanayi butunu icin hesaplanan endekslerden farkli bir seyir izleyerek, sektorel rekabet gucu gelismelerinin anlasilmasinda daha bilgilendirici olmasi beklenmektedir. Bu calismanin amaci Turk Imalat Sanayine ait Saygili ve ark. (2012)’de olusturulan sektorel reel efektif doviz kuru (sektorel REK) endekslerini tanitmak, endeks ozellikleri ve gelismeleri hakkinda bilgi vermektir. Calismada sektorel reel kur endekslerinin hem kendi aralarinda hem de genel UFE ve TUFE bazli imalat sanayi reel kur endekslerine gore farkli egilimler icerisinde oldugu saptanmistir. Yapilan goreli reel kur analizinde sektorlerin rekabet gucu asinanlar, ilimli iyilesenler ve artanlar olmak uzere uc alt grupta siniflandirilabilecegi gorulmustur. Ayrica, Hodrick-Prescott analizi dis ekonomik gelismelere oldukca duyarli olan enerji ve ana metal sanayinde reel kurlarin dongusel hareketlerinin digerlerine gore yuksek oldugunu ortaya koymustur. Sektorel REK endeksleri bilesenlerine ayristirildiginda ise genellikle sektorel reel kur degerlenmelerinin ve sektorlerin rekabet gucu baglaminda uc alt gruba ayrilmasinin temelde goreli fiyat hareketlerinden kaynaklandigi da gozlenmistir. Calismada, son olarak, ucuncu ulke piyasasi agirliginin, ulke genel ihracat agirligi hesaplamasinda dikkate alinmamasi durumunda reel efektif kur degerinin olmasi gerekenden farklilasabilecegi de saptanmistir.

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Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series Working Papers with number 1221.

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Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1221
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