Understanding Sectoral Growth Cycles and the Impact of Monetary Policy in the Turkish Manufacturing Industry (Turkiye Imalat Sanayinde Sektorel Buyume Cevrimleri ve Para Politikasinin Etkileri)
We pursue a two-fold objective in this paper. First, we try to describe comprehensively the behaviour of sectoral growth cycles in Turkish manufacturing by using several statistical measures and to analyse the co-movement between them via correlation and peak-through analysis. One of the remarkable results of this study is the emergence of the “chemicals” and “paper and paper products” sectors as the leading sectors of total manufacturing. Another important result reveals that export-oriented sectors, which have a high correlation with total manufacturing and with each other, appear as the main drivers of total manufacturing. The second objective of this study is to investigate the response of output in Turkish manufacturing industries to monetary policy shocks within the vector autoregressive framework. The results show that all manufacturing sectors respond to a contractionary monetary policy shock with a reduction in absolute output but that the degree of output reduction is not the same in all sectors. The total manufacturing output declines very quickly after the shock, reaching its minimum value within three quarters.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Head Office, Istiklal Cad. 10 Ulus, 06100 Ankara|
Phone: (90 312) 507 5000
Fax: (90 312) 507 5640
Web page: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ozlem Ekmekciler Ramalho Rocha)or (Ilker Cakar)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.