Ihracat ve Ithalatta Gelir ve Goreli Fiyat Etkilerinin Ayristirilmasi

[TR] Bu notta Turkiye'nin reel ihracatinda ve ithalatinda gelir ve goreli fiyat etkilerinin ayristirilmasi amaclanmaktadir. Calismada altin haric ihracat ve ithalat yapisal degiskenler iceren denklemler kullanilarak ceyreklik olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Daha sonra, altin haric reel ihracat ve ithalattaki degisimlerin kaynaklari bu degiskenlere gelen soklar ve degiskenlerin katsayilari kullanilarak ayristirilmaktadir. Yapilan analiz, onceki calismalarla uyumlu olarak, ihracatin dis talebe reel kurdan daha duyarli oldugunu; reel ithalat degisimlerinin ise yurt ici talep ve reel kurdan daha cok etkilendigini ortaya koymaktadir. Ayrica, 2011-2018 doneminde reel ihracat ve ithalattaki toplam degisimin gelir ve goreli fiyat degisimlerinden kaynaklanan kisimlari ayri ayri hesaplanmistir. Bu donemde, mal ihracatindaki degisimde gelir etkisi daha belirleyici iken, hizmet ihracatina gelir ve goreli fiyatlarin dengeli bir katki verdigi gorulmektedir. Toplam ithalattaki degisimde de mal ihracatina benzer bir sekilde gelir etkisi one cikmaktadir.[EN] The aim of this note is to decompose income and relative price effects for real exports and imports of Turkey. In this work exports and imports excluding gold are estimated quarterly employing structural variables. Next, the sources of the changes in real exports and imports excluding gold are decomposed using the shocks and the estimated parameters. The analysis, in accordance with previous research, reveals that exports are more sensitive to foreign demand compared to the real exchange rate. Real imports, on the other hand, are affected primarily from domestic demand and real exchange rate rather than real exports. Moreover, the total change in real exports and imports during 2011-2018 period stemming from income and relative price changes are calculated separately. In this period, while income has more pronounced effect on exports of goods, income and relative prices exhibit a more balanced effect on exports of services. Similar to the exports of goods, income effect accounts for a larger amount of the changes in imports.