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Isgucune Katilim Orani Ongoruleri

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  • Evren Ceritoglu
  • Okan Eren

Abstract

[TR] Bu calismanin amaci Turkiye ekonomisinin 2014 – 2050 donemi icin isgucune katilim orani ongoruleri hazirlamaktir. Isgucune katilim orani ongoruleri TUIK tarafindan yayimlanan Hanehalki Isgucu Anketi (HIA) mikro-ekonomik verileri kullanilarak yas gruplari, cinsiyet ve egitim duzeyi ayriminda uretilmistir. Alt gruplar icin uretilen isgucune katilim orani tahminleri guncel TUIK nufus projeksiyonlari ile agirliklandirilarak Turkiye geneli icin ongorulere ulasilmistir. Bu calismanin Turkiye ekonomisine iliskin yazina en onemli katkisi onumuzdeki yillarda egitim duzeyinin yukselmesinin ve nufusun yaslanmasinin isgucune katilim oranlari uzerindeki etkilerini dikkate alarak isgucune katilim oran ongoruleri olusturmasidir. Bu cercevede, isgucune katilim oraninin onumuzdeki yillarda artmaya devam etmesi, fakat nufusun yaslanmasinin artis egilimini sinirlandirmasi beklenmektedir. [EN] This study aims to prepare labor force participation rate projections for the 2014 – 2050 period of the Turkish economy. Labor force participation rate projections are produced with respect to age group, gender and education categories using micro-economic data from the TURKSTAT Household Labor Force Surveys. Labor force participation rate predictions produced for each category are weighted by up-to-date TURKSTAT population projections to reach country level projections. The main contribution of this study to the literature on the Turkish economy is that it reveals the effects of the increase in education level and the ageing of the population on labor force participation rates in the next years. As a result, the rise in labor force participation rates is expected to continue in the coming years, but the ageing of the population will limit its growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Evren Ceritoglu & Okan Eren, 2015. "Isgucune Katilim Orani Ongoruleri," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1507, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1507
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