On the Role of Productivity and Demographic Factors for Growth : The Case of Turkey, 2004-2012

[EN] Turkey has the highest average annual growth rate of GDP (measured in constant local currency) and the fifth highest average annual growth rate of, purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted, per capita income among all the OECD countries between 2004 and 2012. This note studies the sources of this high growth era in a comparative perspective, decomposing GDP per capita into three components: labor productivity, the ratio of employment-to-working-age population, and the ratio of working-age to total population. We find that growth in output per worker accounts for most of the speed up in Turkey’s GDP per capita growth during 2004-2007, with modest contributions from rising participation rates and increases in the working-age share of the total population. Similarly, declines in labor productivity are primarily responsible for contraction of output per capita during the 2007-2009 global recession. On the other hand, growth in employment-to-population ratio accounts for around two-thirds of growth in per capita output during 2009-2012. These findings suggest a productivity-based growth era before the global crisis and an employment-based growth era in the post-crisis period. [TR] Turkiye, 2004-2012 doneminde, reel GSYIH (yerel para birimi cinsinden) buyumesi olarak OECD ulkeleri arasinda en yuksek buyumeye; satin alma paritesi ile duzeltilmis kisi basina GSYIH buyumesi olarak da OECD ulkeleri arasinda en yuksek besinci buyumeye sahip ulkedir. Bu calismada, verimlilik ve demografik unsurlarin kisi basina gelir buyumesi uzerine etkileri ulkeler arasi karsilastirma yapilarak sunulmustur. Kisi basina gelir (i) emek verimliligi, (ii) istihdamin calisabilir nufusa orani ve (iii) calisabilir nufusun toplam nufusa orani olarak uc bilesene ayristirilmistir. 2004-2009 doneminde emek verimliligindeki artislar kisi basina gelir buyumesini etkileyen en onemli faktordur. Bununla birlikte, 2009-2012 doneminde istihdamin calisabilir nufusa oranindaki artislar kisi basina gelirde gozlenen buyumenin ucte ikisine yakinini aciklayabilmektedir. Bu bulgular, incelenen donemin kriz oncesi verimlilige dayali buyume donemi ve kriz sonrasinda istihdam kaynakli buyume donemi olarak ikiye ayrilabilecegine isaret etmektedir.