IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tcb/econot/1324.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Turkiye’nin Nufus ve Sosyal Yapisindaki Degisimlerin Hanehalki Tasarruflari Uzerindeki Etkileri

Author

Listed:
  • Evren Ceritoglu
  • Okan Eren

Abstract

[TR] Bu calismanin amaci onumuzdeki yillarda Turkiye’nin nufus yapisinda gerceklesmesi beklenen degisimin hanehalki tasarruf oranlarini hangi yonde ve ne kadar etkileyecegini incelemektir. Ayrica, toplam nufus icerisinde universite mezunlarinin sayisinin artmasinin ve isgucune katilim oranlarinin yukselmesinin hanehalki tasarruflari uzerindeki etkileri arastirilmaktadir. Nufus yapisindaki degisimin yani sira universite mezuniyeti ve isgucune katilim oranlarinin artacagi varsayimi altinda, hanehalki tasarruf oraninin 2010 yilindan 2050 yilina kadar olan donemde 7,61 puan artacagi tahmin edilmistir. Soz konusu artisin yaklasik 2,26 puanlik kisminin nufus yapisindaki degisimden, 1,37 puanlik kisminin isgucune katilim oranlarinin yukselmesinden ve 3,81 puanlik bolumunun ise universite mezunlarinin sayisinin artmasindan kaynaklanacagi ongorulmektedir. Bununla birlikte, isgucune katilim oranlarinin yukselmesi ile universite mezunlarinin sayisinin artmasinin birlikte degerlendirilmesinin ortaya cikardigi capraz etkinin hanehalki tasarruf oranina 0,17 puanlik bir katki sagladigi anlasilmaktadir. Elde edilen bulgular universite mezunlarinin oraninin artmasinin hanehalki tasarruflari uzerinde nufus yapisindaki degisime ve isgucune katilim oraninin yukselmesine kiyasla daha onemli oldugunu ortaya cikarmistir. [EN] The aim of this study is to examine and quantify the impact of the change in the structure of population on household savings, which is expected to take place in the following years in Turkey. In addition, the effects of the increase in the number of college graduates in total population and the rise in labor force participation rates on household savings are analyzed. Under the assumption that the change in the structure of population will be accompanied with rising labor force participation rates and the number of college graduates, household saving ratio is projected to increase by 7.61 percentage points between 2010 and 2050. The sole contribution of the change in the structure of population will be 2.26 percentage points, while the contributions of the increases in labor force participation rates and the number of university graduates are expected to be 1.37 and 3.81 percentage points, respectively. Moreover, it is understood that the contribution of the cross effect, which emerges due to the joint evaluation of the rise of labor force participation rates with the increase in the number of university graduates is 0.17 percentage points. According to our empirical findings, the expected increase in the ratio of university graduates has a greater impact on household savings than demographic change and the rise in labor force participation rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Evren Ceritoglu & Okan Eren, 2013. "Turkiye’nin Nufus ve Sosyal Yapisindaki Degisimlerin Hanehalki Tasarruflari Uzerindeki Etkileri," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1324, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1324
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/a3dc973e-d691-48b7-8742-e6212982b7a1/EN1324eng.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-a3dc973e-d691-48b7-8742-e6212982b7a1-m3fw5gK
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1324. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/tcmgvtr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.