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Belirsizligin Iktisadi Faaliyet Uzerindeki Etkileri


  • Yavuz Arslan
  • Aslihan Atabek Demirhan
  • Timur Hulagu
  • Saygin Sahinoz


[TR] Bu notta belirsizlik ile iktisadi faaliyet arasindaki iliski Iktisadi Yonelim Anketi (IYA) verileri kullanilarak incelenmektedir. Firmalarin uretim hacmi gerceklesmesi sorusuna verdikleri yanitlar, ayni doneme iliskin beklenti sorusuna verdikleri cevaplarla karsilastirilmis ve gozlenen beklenti hatalarindan uc farkli belirsizlik olcutu olusturulmustur. Sonuclara gore belirsizligin iktisadi faaliyetle ters yonlu iliskili oldugu gorulmektedir. [EN] This note investigates the relationship between uncertainty and economic activity by using the Business Tendency Survey (BTS) data. Comparing firms’ survey responses about expectations and realizations on their production volume, three different uncertainty measures regarding expectation errors are constructed. Results suggest that the relationship between uncertainty and economic activity is countercyclical.

Suggested Citation

  • Yavuz Arslan & Aslihan Atabek Demirhan & Timur Hulagu & Saygin Sahinoz, 2011. "Belirsizligin Iktisadi Faaliyet Uzerindeki Etkileri," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1120, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1120

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