War and peace for natural resources as economic goods

The paper addresses the role natural and environmental resources in armed and non-armed conflicts through a political economy approach. The analytical reading key is the classifications of economic goods —‘private’, ‘public’, and common goods or ‘commons’, renewable and non-renewable resources, tradable and non-tradable goods. The main hypothesis is that the economic attributes of resources as economic goods can inference the likelihood of observing conflicts or cooperation, especially at the international level. In the case of fossil resource - ‘private goods’, non-renewable, tradable – the likelihood of conflict is high, particularly in weak state contexts, through mechanisms such as resource rents and smuggling networks. Geopolitical factors, price fluctuations and strategic control, influence global conflict patterns and resource-based power struggles. However, the analysis underscores that fossil resource can also foster cooperation, however unstable, within the paradigm of ‘peace and trade’. In the case of water – ‘private good’ or ‘commons’, renewable, non-tradable - conflicts are often localized but cooperation prevails in transboundary contexts. Conflicts over water are relatively rare compared to cooperative arrangements, but climate change and the variability of hydrological regime are increasing tensions, particularly in regions dependent on rain-fed agriculture. In the case of climate – a ‘commons’, non-renewable when taking a Global Carbon Budget perspective, non-tradable when leaving aside emission trading systems – the paper highlight tow paradigms - the ‘fossil paradigm’ and the ‘climate change paradigm’ - that are clashing one another to gain the socio-economic and the ‘vision’ dominance of the world system. Key findings reveal that the persistence of fossil fuel interests and the strategic management of critical raw materials pose significant obstacles to a rapid energy transition and equitable climate governance. The analysis underscores that aligning climate policies with principles of shared governance and equity is essential for mitigating conflicts and advancing cooperation. As a general conclusion, non-renewable, tradable resources such as fossil fuels are more prone to conflict yet can also foster cooperation through the ‘peace and trade’ paradigm. Conversely, ‘commons’ like transboundary waters and climate can bring, because of their own economic nature, to global governance and peace-promoting processes. However, different types of tensions internal to cooperative governance can arise, and critical raw materials - ‘private goods’, non-renewable, tradable – can bring to new conflicts or, conversely, to cooperation through ‘peace and trade’ within the ‘climate change paradigm’.