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France-Allemagne : Y-a-t-il un dividende démographique ?

Listed author(s):
  • Vincent Touze

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Bien que le vieillissement démographique soit avant tout une bonne nouvelle puisqu’il signifie que les individus vivent plus longtemps, il est aussi souvent présenté comme un fardeau économique et social. Il affecterait les capacités productives (baisse de la productivité et diminution de la population active) et réduirait le revenu par tête (augmentation de la population inactive). Il conduirait aussi à un alourdissement des dépenses sociales en faveur des populations âgées (retraite, santé et dépendance) et la fiscalisation de leur financement pourrait peser lourdement sur les incitations à produire des richesses. En toute logique, l’Allemagne devrait être pénalisée d’un vieillissement plus fort que celui observé en France. Pour autant, un dividende démographique en faveur de la France ne va pas de soi. Certes les tendances démographiques prévoient un avenir radieux pour la France. Mais, les évolutions économiques récentes ont plutôt été très favorables à l’économie allemande alors que la France s’est embourbée dans le chômage de masse et une croissance faible...

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File URL: http://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/cnic3v8rndpflfg9o400jh0qo/resources/note35.pdf
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Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number info:hdl:2441/cnic3v8rndpflfg9o400jh0qo.

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Date of creation: 11 Oct 2013
Publication status: Published in Les notes du blog, 2013
Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/cnic3v8rndpflfg9o400jh0qo
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.sciencespo.fr/

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