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Perspectives 2007-2008. Pétrole : avis de tempête

Listed author(s):
  • Frédéric Reynès

    (Nederlandse Organisatie voor Toegepast Natuurwetenschappelijk Onderzoek)

Comme les années précédentes, l’année 2007 a connu de fortes fluctuations du prix du pétrole. Entraîné par la douceur de l’hiver dans l’hémisphère Nord, le cours du baril de Brent est descendu jusqu’à 50,5 dollars à la mi-janvier avant de plafonner à 79 dollars le 20 juillet. Après une nouvelle chute à 67,1 dollars le 21 août, il remontait à 79 dollars fin septembre. Cette forte volatilité s’explique principalement par des erreurs d’anticipation sur la consommation et par des événements géopolitiques ou climatiques qui affectent ou font peser des risques sur l’état de l’offre. Depuis plusieurs années, cette volatilité semble renforcée par des évolutions saisonnières du cours qui traduiraient essentiellement une hausse de la prime de risque pendant la période des ouragans (...).

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File URL: http://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/6364/resources/reynes-revueofce-103.pdf
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Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number info:hdl:2441/6364.

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Date of creation: Oct 2007
Publication status: Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2007, pp.104-107
Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6364
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.sciencespo.fr/

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