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Le syndrome du poisson rouge: Perspectives 2011-2012 pour l’économie mondiale

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  • Sabine Le Bayon

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Hervé Péléraux

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Xavier Timbeau

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Abstract

Au second semestre 2010, l'économie mondiale a confirmé le redressement engagé à la mi-2009. Il convient néanmoins de relativiser la portée de ce redressement car les économies développées sont loin d'avoir apuré les conséquences de la récession. Tous les grands pays industriels affichent encore des niveaux de PIB par habitant inférieurs au point haut du premier trimestre 2008 ; le chômage, s'il a interrompu sa progression, reste à des niveaux rarement observés dans le passé. Ce diagnostic d'une dérive des économies vers la déflation est brouillé par la hausse du prix des matières premières qui réanime le débat sur l'opportunité d'un resserrement de la politique monétaire. Dans le même temps se profile un redressement des finances publiques mises à mal à la fois par les politiques de soutien et le jeu des stabilisateurs automatiques durant la crise. En conduisant des politiques restrictives trop précocement et simultanément, les gouvernements, sous la pression des marchés, prennent le risque de brider une reprise fragile et, finalement, de retarder la réduction des déficits. Le retour aux politiques keynésiennes de soutien de la demande aura été éphémère.

Suggested Citation

  • Sabine Le Bayon & Hervé Péléraux & Xavier Timbeau, 2011. "Le syndrome du poisson rouge: Perspectives 2011-2012 pour l’économie mondiale," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqi, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h564ld413
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul van den Noord, 2005. "Tax Incentives and House Price Volatility in the Euro Area: Theory and Evidence," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 101, pages 29-45.
    2. Jorge Martínez Pagés & Luis Ángel Maza, 2003. "Analysis of house prices in Spain," Working Papers 0307, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    3. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next "bubble"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
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