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Le syndrome du poisson rouge: Perspectives 2011-2012 pour l’économie mondiale

Listed author(s):
  • Sabine Le Bayon

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Hervé Péléraux

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Xavier Timbeau

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Au second semestre 2010, l'économie mondiale a confirmé le redressement engagé à la mi-2009. Il convient néanmoins de relativiser la portée de ce redressement car les économies développées sont loin d'avoir apuré les conséquences de la récession. Tous les grands pays industriels affichent encore des niveaux de PIB par habitant inférieurs au point haut du premier trimestre 2008 ; le chômage, s'il a interrompu sa progression, reste à des niveaux rarement observés dans le passé. Ce diagnostic d'une dérive des économies vers la déflation est brouillé par la hausse du prix des matières premières qui réanime le débat sur l'opportunité d'un resserrement de la politique monétaire. Dans le même temps se profile un redressement des finances publiques mises à mal à la fois par les politiques de soutien et le jeu des stabilisateurs automatiques durant la crise. En conduisant des politiques restrictives trop précocement et simultanément, les gouvernements, sous la pression des marchés, prennent le risque de brider une reprise fragile et, finalement, de retarder la réduction des déficits. Le retour aux politiques keynésiennes de soutien de la demande aura été éphémère.

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Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h564ld413.

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Date of creation: 14 Apr 2011
Publication status: Published in Lettre de l'OFCE, 2011, pp.1-5
Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h564ld413
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.sciencespo.fr/

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