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Zone euro : serrez les rangs !: Perspectives 2009-2010 pour l'économie européenne

Author

Listed:
  • Christophe Blot

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Sabine Le Bayon

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Matthieu Lemoine

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Abstract

Alors que la croissance résistait encore début 2008, le PIB s’est contracté au deuxième trimestre, avant de s’effondrer en fin d’année (- 1,5 %). La croissance est certes restée positive en 2008 (0,7 %), mais l’acquis pour 2009 est d’ores et déjà négatif à - 1,3 %. La crise financière s’est rapidement propagée à la sphère réelle, enclenchant un cycle de désendettement, avec pour conséquence une contraction de la consommation et de l’investissement, puis un ralentissement des créations d’emplois. De plus, la crise touchant simultanément les pays industrialisés et en voie de développement, une sortie ou un amortissement de la récession via le commerce extérieur est donc exclue, comme en témoigne la chute des exportations fin 2008. Le PIB se contracterait tout au long de l’année 2009, avec la poursuite de l’ajustement des cycles d’investissement productif et en logement. La faible croissance des revenus et l’augmentation de l’épargne de précaution réduiraient la consommation privée. Tous les pays de la zone seraient au diapason de la récession et la baisse du PIB serait au total de 3,3 % en 2009. Le retour à une croissance trimestrielle positive n’est attendu qu’à partir du deuxième trimestre 2010. Mais l’investissement serait toujours en phase descendante et les ménages consommeraient peu, afin de reconstituer un patrimoine largement amputé. Au final, le PIB se contracterait encore en 2010 (- 0,3 %), contrairement aux États-Unis où la politique monétaire et surtout budgétaire ont été plus réactives et de plus forte ampleur.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Blot & Sabine Le Bayon & Matthieu Lemoine, 2009. "Zone euro : serrez les rangs !: Perspectives 2009-2010 pour l'économie européenne," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqi, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h560jgp8p
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