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Débat sur les perspectives à court terme du 5 Octobre 2001

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Paul Fitoussi

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Michel Aglietta

    (Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales)

  • Jean-Paul Betbèze

    (Département de sciences économiques et de gestion)

  • Philippe Sigogne

    (INSEE Paris)

  • Jacky Fayolle

    (Centre Etudes & Prospective)

  • Henri Sterdyniak

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Xavier Timbeau

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Abstract

Les prévisions occupent une place particulière dans le débat public en économie. Elles sont généralement considérées comme des prédictions, qualifiées fréquemment d’optimistes ou de pessimistes, comme si elles dépendaient de l’humeur des équipes qui les réalisent. Certes, en un sens, la prévision est un art tant elle dépend des signes précurseurs que nous livre le présent, de l’interprétation des évolutions en cours, de la capacité des économistes de sélectionner les informations pertinentes parmi celles, multiples, dont l’intérêt n’est qu’anecdotique. Mais elle est surtout une science puisqu’elle consiste à déduire des informations dont on dispose sur le présent une vision de l’avenir. Elle ne peut être formulée en dehors d’un cadre général d’interprétation, c’est-à-dire d’une théorie qui met en relation les informations que l’on privilégie et les variables que l’on cherche à prévoir (...).

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Michel Aglietta & Jean-Paul Betbèze & Philippe Sigogne & Jacky Fayolle & Henri Sterdyniak & Xavier Timbeau, 2001. "Débat sur les perspectives à court terme du 5 Octobre 2001," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/4006, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4006
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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