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Réforme des retraites: tout miser sur l’allongement de la durée de cotisation?

Listed author(s):
  • Gérard Cornilleau

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Henri Sterdyniak

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

L'évolution démographique oblige inéluctablement la société française à effectuer des choix douloureux en matière de retraite. De nombreux rapports, le dernier étant celui du Conseil d’Orientation des Retraites (COR), 2002, ont mis en lumière l’ampleur des déséquilibres potentiels. Dans un scénario relativement optimiste (baisse du taux de chômage à 4,5 %, remontée de 60 à 70 % du taux d’activité des 55-60 ans, de 14,5 à 20 % de celui des 60-65 ans), le ratio entre le nombre des retraités et le nombre des actifs passerait de 54 en 2000 à 87 % en 2040. Maintenir inchangés tant le ratio entre la pension moyenne et le salaire moyen que les conditions de départ à la retraite conduirait à faire passer les prestations retraites de 12,6 à 18,5 % du PIB. En sens inverse, stabiliser la part des retraites dans le PIB nécessiterait soit une baisse de 40 % du pouvoir d’achat relatif des retraités, soit un recul d’environ 9 ans de l’âge moyen de cessation d’activité (...).

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File URL: http://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/3968/resources/237.pdf
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Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number info:hdl:2441/3968.

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Date of creation: May 2003
Publication status: Published in Lettre de l'OFCE, 2003, pp.1-8
Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3968
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.sciencespo.fr/

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