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L'impact du découplage des politiques monétaires de la BCE et de la Fed sur la zone euro et les pays émergents

Author

Listed:
  • Christophe Blot

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Paul Hubert

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Christine Rifflart

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Abstract

Alors que la Réserve fédérale a amorcé un cycle de hausse des taux en décembre 2015, la BCE a amplifié son programme d’assouplissement quantitatif en annonçant d’abord une extension de la durée du programme, puis une augmentation de sa taille et enfin un élargissement de la gamme d’actifs achetés. Il en résulte un découplage croissant de la politique monétaire entre les États-Unis et la zone euro. Ce découplage pourrait accentuer les effets du soutien qu’apporte la BCE par le canal du taux de change. Nous illustrons ce mécanisme en évaluant l’effet en zone euro des variations de taux d’intérêt anticipés et de taille du bilan sur le taux de change et le prix des cours boursiers.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Christine Rifflart, 2016. "L'impact du découplage des politiques monétaires de la BCE et de la Fed sur la zone euro et les pays émergents," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/239aegfcsb8, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/239aegfcsb8kvpd5375841mfcf
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    Keywords

    politiques monétaires; transmission internationale; pays emergents; prix d'actifs; Taux de change;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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