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L'étude des fluctuations macroéconomiques est-elle « scientifique » ?

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  • Edouard Challe

Abstract

L'étude des fluctuations macroéconomiques part du principe que le comportement du tout (les agrégats) ne se réduit pas à la somme des parties (les agents, les marchés). Il en est ainsi parce que les interdépendances entre marchés peuvent substantiellement amplifier, ou au contraire amortir, les chocs qui à tout moment perturbent l'équilibre. La compréhension de ces effets d'équilibre général, sur lesquels les évidences directes sont limitées, les facteurs confondants multiples, et les expérimentations contrôlées impossibles, est nécessairement plus conjecturale – mais non moins « scientifique » – que l'étude des comportements individuels ou d'un marché isolé. Ignorer ces effets au motif qu'ils n'ont pas le même degré de certitude empirique qu'un effet microéconomique directement observé peut conduire à de lourdes erreurs de politique économique.

Suggested Citation

  • Edouard Challe, 2017. "L'étude des fluctuations macroéconomiques est-elle « scientifique » ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1a90edeer38, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1a90edeer38vna7oseccjhgvp8
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