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La France emmêlée. Perspectives 2003-2004 pour l'économie française

Author

Listed:
  • Eric Heyer

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Valerie Chauvin

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Guillaume Chevillon

    (Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique)

  • Gaël Dupont

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Matthieu Lemoine

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Mathieu Plane

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Abstract

Après trois années de forte croissance (3,6 % en moyenne de 1998 à 2000), la France a connu un ralentissement en 2001 (1,8 %) qui s’est prolongé en 2002 (1,2 %). Pour 2003 et 2004, nous faisons l’hypothèse que l’économie française progressera de manière modérée, à un rythme légèrement inférieur à celui de la zone euro : la croissance dans l’hexagone serait respectivement de 0,4 % et 1,5 % contre 0,5 % et 1,6 % pour la zone euro. La croissance française resterait inférieure à son potentiel, conséquence directe du comportement prudent des agents privés français face aux incertitudes sur la politique fiscale et des contraintes sur la politique budgétaire.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Heyer & Valerie Chauvin & Guillaume Chevillon & Gaël Dupont & Matthieu Lemoine & Mathieu Plane, 2003. "La France emmêlée. Perspectives 2003-2004 pour l'économie française," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1944, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1944
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