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La démographie à la rescousse de la protection sociale en France

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  • Mathieu Plane

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Abstract

L’INSEE a publié en juillet 2006 de nouvelles projections de population active à l’horizon 20501. Le nouveau scénario affiché par l’INSEE modifie en profondeur la vision que l’on peut avoir de l’activité française à long terme. Les précédentes projections2 dressaient un tableau beaucoup plus sombre quant à l’évolution du nombre d’actifs pour le demi-siècle à venir. La population active devait atteindre son point haut en 2006, puis décroître de façon quasi-tendancielle jusqu’en 2050. Le nombre d’actifs devait se réduire de plus de 2,3 millions entre 2000 et 2050, soit une baisse de 9 % (graphique 1). Dans un scénario de diminution de l’offre de travail, le retour au plein emploi devait se faire rapidement (aux environs de 2010 selon nos projections). Mais dans un contexte de baisse rapide de la population active, l’économie française aurait vite buté sur des contraintes d’offre, la croissance étant freinée par la réduction de l’offre de travail (...).

Suggested Citation

  • Mathieu Plane, 2007. "La démographie à la rescousse de la protection sociale en France," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1541, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1541
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    File URL: http://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/1541/resources/lettre281-plane.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michele Boldrin & Sergi Jimenez-Martin & Franco Peracchi, 1999. "Social Security and Retirement in Spain," NBER Chapters,in: Social Security and Retirement around the World, pages 305-353 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jørgen Elmeskov & Karl Pichelmann, 1993. "Unemployment and Labour Force Participation: Trends and Cycles," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 130, OECD Publishing.
    3. Odile Chagny & Gaël Dupont & Henri Sterdyniak & Paola Veroni, 2001. "Les réformes des systèmes de retraite en Europe," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 78(3), pages 97-208.
    4. Alain Jacquot, 1997. "Les flexions des taux d'activité sont-elles seulement conjoncturelles ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 127(1), pages 137-155.
    5. Didier Blanchet & Jean-Marie Chanut, 1998. "Les retraites individuelles à long terme : une projection par microsimulation," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 315(1), pages 95-106.
    6. Robert Plasman, 1994. "Femmes d'Europe sur le marché du travail," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/156180, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    7. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2543 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Deborah Roseveare & Willi Leibfritz & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1996. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: Simulations for 20 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 168, OECD Publishing.
    9. Dave Turner & Claude Giorno & Alain de Serres & Ann Vourc'h & Pete Richardson, 1998. "The Macroeconomic Implications of Ageing in a Global Context," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 193, OECD Publishing.
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