IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/spa/wpaper/2019wpecon20.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of Climate Change on Internal Migration in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Jaqueline Oliveira
  • Paula Pereda

Abstract

Business-as-usual climate-change forecasts point to sharp temperature rises and agriculture yield losses in Brazil. We study the impact of these changes on internal migration and population distribution. We employ a spatial equilibrium model in which the climate shapes workers' locational choices through the usual amenity-value channel and the novel indirect channel via agriculture wages. Our simulations reveal that migration rates are 5.9% higher, and that half million more people migrate inter regionally under future climate conditions. Furthermore, climate change will likely exacerbate the country's regional inequalities, as the most developed regions gain population and welfare while the least developed regions lose.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaqueline Oliveira & Paula Pereda, 2019. "The Impact of Climate Change on Internal Migration in Brazil," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2019_20, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP), revised 12 Mar 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2019wpecon20
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.repec.eae.fea.usp.br/documentos/Oliveira_Pereda_20WP.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Change; Agriculture Productivity; Internal Migration; Regional Inequality; Spatial Equilibrium.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2019wpecon20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Pedro Garcia Duarte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deuspbr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.