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FX sentiment analysis with large language models

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  • Daniele Ballinari
  • Jessica Maly

Abstract

We enhance sentiment analysis in the foreign exchange (FX) market by fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) to better understand and interpret the complex language specific to FX markets. We build on existing methods by using state-of-the-art open source LLMs, fine-tuning them with labelled FX news articles and then comparing their performance against traditional approaches and alternative models. Furthermore, we tested these fine-tuned LLMs by creating investment strategies based on the sentiment they detect in FX analysis articles with the goal of demonstrating how well these strategies perform in real-world trading scenarios. Our findings indicate that the fine-tuned LLMs outperform the existing methods in terms of both the classification accuracy and trading performance, highlighting their potential for improving FX market sentiment analysis and investment decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniele Ballinari & Jessica Maly, 2025. "FX sentiment analysis with large language models," Working Papers 2025-11, Swiss National Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2025-11
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    File URL: https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2025/working_paper_2025_11
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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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