Crime and Financial Inclusion: Assessing How Criminality Shapes Access to Financial Services

This study examines the relationship between criminality and financial inclusion across 128 countries using data from the Global Findex Database and the Global Organized Crime Index. We assess whether the presence of criminal actors and criminal markets influences individuals' likelihood of owning a financial account. The results indicate that higher levels of criminality are associated with a lower probability of account ownership. This relationship is driven primarily by the presence of criminal actors, particularly state-embedded actors and mafia-style groups, rather than criminal markets. Regional analyses reveal substantial heterogeneity, with the strongest negative effects observed in East Asia and the Pacific, Latin America, and the Middle East and North Africa. The findings contribute to the literature on criminality, financial inclusion, and digital finance by highlighting how criminal governance structures may undermine access to formal financial services.