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Economic Crisis and Trade Liberalization: A CGE Analysis On The Forestry Sector

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Abstract

This paper uses simulations based on a GTAP model to reproduce the economic crisis in Southeast Asia, and in particular in Indonesia. The model is a static-real sector model, so the focus of the simulation is on the declining investment and the declining prices of non-traded goods during the crisis. The simulation is conducted by creating an exogenous shock on risk premium in Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia, which leads to smaller allocation of regional investment in these countries, lower stock of capital goods, and lower production. The second shock, which is the declining price of land and natural resource, opens the possibility of resource allocation between sectors in the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Tubagus Feridhanusetyawan & Yose Rizal Damuri, 2004. "Economic Crisis and Trade Liberalization: A CGE Analysis On The Forestry Sector," CSIS Economics Working Paper Series WPE079, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta, Indonesia.
    • Handle: RePEc:sis:wpecon:wpe079
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    File URL: http://www.csis.or.id/working_paper_file/38/wpe079.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Southeast Asia; Indonesia; Asian crisis; forestry sector; computable general equilibrium (CGE);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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