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Investissement agricole, croissance et la réduction de la pauvreté : Quel apport du programme détaillé de développement de l'agriculture africaine en Guinée-Bissau ?

Author

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  • François Joseph Cabral

    (Faculté des sciences économiques et de gestion (FASEG), Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar (UCAD); Consortium pour la Recherche Economique et Sociale (CRES); Groupe de recherche sur le développement international (GREDI), Université de Sherbrooke)

Abstract

L'objectif attendu du Programme détaillé de développement de l'agriculture africaine (PDDAA) impulsé dans le cadre du NEPAD est d'accroître le rythme de la croissance agricole afin de concourir à la réduction de moitié de la pauvreté conformément au premier objectif du millénaire pour le développement (OMD) en 2015. Pour un pays moins avancé comme la Guinée Bissau dont près de la moitié du Pib provient du secteur agricole, ce programme sera crucial dans la quête des OMD. Dans cet article, nous développons un modèle d'équilibre général calculable dynamique afin de simuler l'implémentation du PDDAA dans le cas de l'économie bissau-guinéenne et en évaluons l'impact sur la pauvreté et, en conséquence, sur la poursuite des objectifs définis par les OMD. Les résultats obtenus font ressortir que la Guinée Bissau ne pourrait pas réaliser le premier OMD en 2015 même sous l'hypothèse d'une implémentation du programme PDDA. Seule une mise en oeuvre soutenue du programme PDDA sur un horizon temporel plus long et une politique volontariste de relèvement de la productivité agricole permettrait aux décideurs de mener l'économie vers un chemin de croissance apte à conduire à la réduction de moitié de la pauvreté en 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • François Joseph Cabral, 2011. "Investissement agricole, croissance et la réduction de la pauvreté : Quel apport du programme détaillé de développement de l'agriculture africaine en Guinée-Bissau ?," Cahiers de recherche 11-03, Departement d'Economique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
  • Handle: RePEc:shr:wpaper:11-03
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    File URL: http://gredi.recherche.usherbrooke.ca/wpapers/GREDI-1103.pdf
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