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Opinion Formation in Business Surveys: Empirical Evidence from German Micro Data


  • Klaus Wohlrabe

    () (Business Surveys Ifo Institute for Economic Research and University of Munich)


The article contributes to a broader understanding of how firms form its opinion in regular business surveys as we identify determinants of this process. In a large micro panel data set from the Ifo Business Cycle Test in Germany we employ the log-probability model to investigate relationships among categorical variables. Panel causality tests do not reveal strictly exogenous variables in the questionnaire. Ordered random effects probit panel estimations identify macroeconomic determinants of current situation and expectations. Furthermore we intendify some herding effects in the micro data

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Wohlrabe, 2006. "Opinion Formation in Business Surveys: Empirical Evidence from German Micro Data," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 261, Society for Computational Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:261

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    More about this item


    expectation formation; log-linear models; panel data; ifo micro data;

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations


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