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The Effects of EU Shocks on the Macrovariables of the Newly Acceded Countries -A Sign Restriction Approach


  • Alina Barnett


This paper analyses the response of seven of the newly acceded countries (NACs)to EU supply and monetary shocks. A typical NAC perceives an EU technology disturbance as a positive supply shock and an EU monetary expansion as a negative demand shock. When we split the seven countries into two groups, results for group one which includes the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia suggest that an EU supply shock feeds through as a demand shock, increasing both prices and output. This hints that trade acts as a strong channel of EU shock propagation. For both groups, monetary disturbances explain a large proportion of NAC’s output fluctuation while technology disturbances account for a significant part of export variations. EU shocks are identified as in Canova and De Nicol´o (2002) using sign restrictions of the cross-correlation function of the variables’ responses to orthogonal disturbances. These restrictions are derived from an SDGE model

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  • Alina Barnett, 2005. "The Effects of EU Shocks on the Macrovariables of the Newly Acceded Countries -A Sign Restriction Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 450, Society for Computational Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf5:450

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    2. Hamilton, James D, 1997. "Measuring the Liquidity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 80-97, March.
    3. Moschitz, Julius, 2004. "The determinants of the overnight interest rate in the euro area," Working Paper Series 393, European Central Bank.
    4. Malmsten, Hans, 2004. "Evaluating exponential GARCH models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 564, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 03 Sep 2004.
    5. Gaspar, Vítor & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Rodriguez Mendizabal, Hugo, 2004. "Interest Rate Determination in the Interbank Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 4516, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Christian Ewerhart & Nuno Cassola & Steen Ejerskov & Natacha Valla, "undated". "Liquidity, Information, and the Overnight Rate," IEW - Working Papers 186, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    7. Gaspar, Ví­tor & Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Rodríguez Mendizábal, Hugo, 2004. "Interest rate determination in the interbank market," Working Paper Series 351, European Central Bank.
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    More about this item


    structural VAR; sign restrictions; European Integration; business cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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