Estimating Sticky Information Phillips Curve: International Evidence from the Consensus Survey of Forecasters
This paper provides an empirical evaluation of the sticky information Phillips curve of Mankiw, Reis, Carroll and others on international data. We believe the paper is the first work that estimates the sticky information Phillips curve using survey data on expectations. We use a unique survey dataset on expected inflation and GDP growth provided by the Consensus Economics, London. The survey provides expected data from professional forecaster up to 6 quarters ahead for a range of major industrial countries. This makes it ideal for extracting the structural parameters of the sticky information Phillips curve. Preliminary results indicate that consumers in Germany update their inflation expectations faster than was previously estimated for the US (on average about twice a year compared to once a year in the US).
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