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Domestic and International Determinants of the Sustainability of Public Debt

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  • Michael Binder

Abstract

In this paper I investigate the sustainability of public debt in Latin- and South-American economies. To this purpose, a Panel VECM framework is proposed that accounts both for heterogeneities and homogenities of the debt dynamics in these countries, as well as takes account of the interdependecies between these economies and economies in other hemispheres. The estimated Panel VECM model is used to forecast future debt dynamics under alternative fiscal policy scenarios, with extremal events analysis being used to assess the likelihood of insolvency. The results are contrasted with those based on an analysis of intertemporal budget constraints as commonly employed in the literature

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Binder, 2004. "Domestic and International Determinants of the Sustainability of Public Debt," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 319, Society for Computational Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:319
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public Debt; Dynamic Panels; Extremal Events Analysis; Latin and South America;

    JEL classification:

    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

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