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Natural Disaster Exposure and Climate Change Beliefs

Author

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  • Valentina Peruzzi
  • Maria Luisa Signore
  • Salvatore Vergine

Abstract

This paper investigates how direct exposure to climate-related natural disasters shapes the evolution of climate change beliefs over time. Using survey data collected through face-to-face interviews in Italy, we analyze perceived climate change severity across three temporal horizons (past, present, and future), accounting for heterogeneity in individual characteristics. We first provide regression-based evidence on the relationship between disaster exposure and perceived severity. We then examine belief updating dynamics by estimating non-homogeneous Markov transition matrices conditional on individual traits. Our findings show that exposure to natural disasters is associated with higher climate-related concern and greater persistence in high-severity belief states. Belief updating is heterogeneous: younger and risk-loving individuals tend to revise their perceptions more sharply following exposure, whereas older or risk-averse respondents display more gradual updating patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentina Peruzzi & Maria Luisa Signore & Salvatore Vergine, 2026. "Natural Disaster Exposure and Climate Change Beliefs," Working Papers in Public Economics 273, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Rome.
    • Handle: RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp273
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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