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The credibility of the exchange rate regime: An analisys through derivatives of the September 1992 Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Fabio Barbato
  • Giuseppe Garofalo

Abstract

This paper argues that, in the September 1992 European currency crisis, market trends in derivatives, in terms of price volatility and change in volumes traded, might have represented an early indicator, in reference to the spot market, of the lack of confidence in the ability of the Italian Lira and the Sterling Pound to maintain their parities within the ERM. The assessment is made by comparing the daily data on Italian/English interbank rates with the implicit yield on short-term interest rate futures and with a maximum compatible with the ERM band created by means of German interbank rates and changes in the exchange rates

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Barbato & Giuseppe Garofalo, 1996. "The credibility of the exchange rate regime: An analisys through derivatives of the September 1992 Crisis," Working Papers in Public Economics 16, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    • Handle: RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp16
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    File URL: https://web.uniroma1.it/dip_ecodir/sites/default/files/wpapers/wp16.pdf
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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