IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sad/wpaper/181.html

Relaxing the Biological Clock: Can More Time Reduce Fertility?

Author

Listed:
  • Martín Rossi

    (Universidad de San Andrés)

Abstract

Egg freezing relaxes the biological deadline associated with female fertility and is widely viewed as an empowering technology expected to increase lifetime fertility. This paper challenges that intuition. We develop a finite-horizon dynamic stopping model in which fertility initiation requires the simultaneous alignment of multiple, imperfectly persistent dimensions, including partnership quality, economic conditions, and personal readiness. Initiating childbearing is irreversible and occurs only when the joint realization of these evolving states exceeds an endogenous reservation threshold. By lowering the hazard of irreversible infertility, egg freezing increases the continuation value of waiting and raises this reservation standard. Individuals optimally become more selective. However, the technology insures only against biological decline, not against partnership instability or the tightening of other age-dependent constraints. When these dimensions do not improve with age, greater selectivity can delay initiation and reduce the probability of crossing the threshold within a finite horizon. As a result, relaxing the biological deadline can reduce fertility initiation and expected completed fertility in a non-empty region of parameters. We derive formal propositions and discuss empirical implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Martín Rossi, 2026. "Relaxing the Biological Clock: Can More Time Reduce Fertility?," Working Papers 181, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Feb 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:sad:wpaper:181
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.udesa.edu.ar/pub/econ/doc181.pdf
    File Function: First version, February 2026
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jérôme Adda & Christian Dustmann & Katrien Stevens, 2017. "The Career Costs of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(2), pages 293-337.
    2. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474, December.
    3. Matthew Rabin & Ted O'Donoghue, 1999. "Doing It Now or Later," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 103-124, March.
    4. Robert Shimer & Lones Smith, 2000. "Assortative Matching and Search," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 343-370, March.
    5. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    6. Marco Francesconi, 2002. "A Joint Dynamic Model of Fertility and Work of Married Women," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(2), pages 336-380, Part.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Grenadier, Steven R. & Wang, Neng, 2007. "Investment under uncertainty and time-inconsistent preferences," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 2-39, April.
    2. de la Croix, David & Pommeret, Aude, 2021. "Childbearing postponement, its option value, and the biological clock," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    3. Ebert, Sebastian & Wei, Wei & Zhou, Xun Yu, 2020. "Weighted discounting—On group diversity, time-inconsistency, and consequences for investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    4. Tian, Yuan, 2016. "Optimal capital structure and investment decisions under time-inconsistent preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 83-104.
    5. Masaaki Kijima & Yuan Tian, 2013. "Investment and capital structure decisions under time-inconsistent preferences　," KIER Working Papers 858, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    6. Arve, Malin & Zwart, Gijsbert, 2023. "Optimal procurement and investment in new technologies under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    7. Wong, Kit Pong, 2011. "Progressive taxation and the intensity and timing of investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 100-108, January.
    8. Todd D. Gerarden & Richard G. Newell & Robert N. Stavins, 2025. "Assessing the Energy-Efficiency Gap," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Economics of Environment, Climate Change, and Wine Selected Papers of Robert N Stavins Volume 3 (2011–2023), chapter 4, pages 53-118, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Estrada, Isabel & de la Fuente, Gabriel & Martín-Cruz, Natalia, 2010. "Technological joint venture formation under the real options approach," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1185-1197, November.
    10. Song, Dandan & Wang, Huamao & Yang, Zhaojun, 2014. "Learning, pricing, timing and hedging of the option to invest for perpetual cash flows with idiosyncratic risk," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-11.
    11. Wong, Kit Pong, 2008. "Does market demand volatility facilitate collusion?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 696-703, July.
    12. John P. Small & Henry Ergas, 1999. "The Rental Cost of Sunk and Regulated Capital," Econometrics Working Papers 9908, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    13. Nicholas Bloom, 2014. "Fluctuations in Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 153-176, Spring.
    14. Gürtler, Marc & Sieg, Gernot, 2006. "Crunch time: The optimal policy to avoid the "Announcement Effect" when terminating a subsidy," Working Papers FW24V2, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
    15. Julia Müller & Thorsten Upmann, 2026. "Returns to Scale and Strategic Regimes in Innovation Races," CESifo Working Paper Series 12552, CESifo.
    16. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C., 1998. "A model of sequential investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 437-463, March.
    17. Feil, Jan-Henning & Musshoff, Oliver, 2013. "Investment, disinvestment and policy impact analysis in the dairy sector: a real options approach," Structural Change in Agriculture/Strukturwandel im Agrarsektor (SiAg) Working Papers 159229, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    18. Ferguson, Andrew & Hu, Wei & Lam, Peter, 2022. "Political uncertainty and deal structure: Evidence from Australian mining project acquisitions," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    19. Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2010. "The effect of mean reversion on entry and exit decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 725-742, April.
    20. Cavapozzi, Danilo & Francesconi, Marco & Nicoletti, Cheti, 2024. "Dividing Housework between Partners: Individual Preferences and Social Norms," IZA Discussion Papers 17370, IZA Network @ LISER.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sad:wpaper:181. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Economia (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/desanar.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.