Determinanti ai instabilitatii economice din Europa de Est, în perioada crizei financiare globale
This study aims at identifying and quantifying the influence of the endogenous and exogenous factors which affected the macroeconomic stability of the Emerging European (EE) Countries, under the conditions of the global financial crisis. The specific objectives to which the research included in this work focused are the following: (i) research on formation mechanisms of the main structural imbalances preceding the economic crisis from the EE countries, with focus on the role of inflows of foreign capital and over-lending, next to the analysis of their role in amplifying the effects of the global crisis; (ii) empirical studying of the short- and medium-term impact of the foreign capital reduction over the domestic absorption and the pace of gross domestic product in the EE countries, and also the factors that influence this correlation; (iii) a quantitative analysis of the extent to which the effects of the recession in the exporting and importing countries affected the dynamics of the export volume of the European countries; (iv) the construction of a monetary condition index for Romania and studying the way its evolved during the crisis, in order to establish the extent in which the decline of the domestic product from the previous trend was correlated with the evolution of monetary conditions. The work identifies the particular external vulnerability of the EE countries as the main driver of instability during the recession period, next to the high previous lending growth. The current recession fully showed the negative side of the dependency on foreign capital and external demand for export, of the EE economies.
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