IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Backward Induction and Model Deterioration

Unlike formal games, most social applications are not accompanied by a complete list describing all relevant actions. As a result, the most difficult task faced by the players is often to formulate a model of the interaction. While it is known how players may learn to play in a game they know, the issue of how their model of the game evolves over time is largely unexplored. This paper presents and analyzes a social earning constrction that explicitely keeps track of the evolution of models held by players who are able to solve perfect-information extensive form games (according to their models), and whose models depend on past observation of play. We introduce the possibility of small-probability model deterioration and show that, even when concerning only opponents' unobserved actions, such deterioration may upset the complete-model backward-induction solution, and yield a Pareto-improving long-run distribution of play. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the robustness of backward-induction path with respect to model deterioration. These conditions can be interpreted with a forward-induction logic, and are shown to be less demanding than the requirements for asymptotic stability of the backward-induction path under standad evolutionary dynamics. In all games where it may upset the backward-induction path, model deterioration may induce long-run distributions of play that correspond to non subgame perfect Nash equilibria.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://rcer.econ.rochester.edu/RCERPAPERS/rcer_484.pdf
File Function: full text
Download Restriction: None

Paper provided by University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER) in its series RCER Working Papers with number 484.

as
in new window

Length: 57 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:roc:rocher:484
Contact details of provider: Postal: University of Rochester, Center for Economic Research, Department of Economics, Harkness 231 Rochester, New York 14627 U.S.A.

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:roc:rocher:484. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard DiSalvo)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.