Sustainability of urban development under sanctions and new economic challenges in russia[Устойчивость Городского Развития В Условиях Санкций И Новых Экономических Вызовов В России]

The topic of urban sustainability or resilience is of particular relevance today: the future is becoming increasingly unpredictable: risks associated with the spread of COVID-19 and other viruses, climate change, geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, etc. are increasing. The global economy is entering a phase of turbulence, which directly affects the resilience of cities. In 2022-2023, our country faced the most large-scale in its history sanctions pressure from unfriendly states, which became a serious test for the most diverse sectors of the economy and management and required both prompt and systemic long-term response from virtually all public authorities, Russian business and Russian society. The subject of the study is the dynamics of socio-economic development of Russian cities under the impact of external shocks related to the pandemic and sanctions pressure in 2020-2022. The scientific novelty of the work consists in a comprehensive analysis of urban sustainability in the conditions of economic crises of a new type using a comprehensive toolkit: not only the study of state statistics, correlation and regression analysis on this basis, but also the analysis of budgets, expert interviews and questionnaires. The main objective of the research: to identify the main problems and vulnerabilities that reduce the stress resilience of Russian cities at the present stage, to develop proposals to improve the resilience of Russian cities. The main fundamental and applied tasks to be solved in the framework of the research: 1) analysis of theoretical approaches to the definition of urban shock resilience; 2) analysis of theoretical and practical approaches to the measurement of urban stress resilience in practice, identification of the main methods of measuring shock resilience; 3) survey of representatives of the authorities of Russian cities by questionnaire method; 4) in-depth qualitative interviews with representatives of the administration of Russian cities; 6) analysis of the key spatial, socio- economic and social and economic factors that affect the resilience of Russian cities to stress. As part of this research work, two phases of the study were conducted between January and November 2023. Within the framework of the first phase (January-June 2023): - theoretical and methodological basis of the research was prepared; - demographic analysis of the historical development of Russian cities (within the time of availability of statistical data) in the context of the impact of external shocks on urban development; - a questionnaire survey was conducted among the leaders of 57 Russian cities, and the information collected as a result was summarised and analysed; - a series of 29 in-depth interviews with heads of local self-government bodies of Russian cities was conducted, the information collected was summarised and analysed; - a series of meetings were held with the heads of the Federal State Statistics Service and VEB.RF Corporation, and agreements were reached to provide a full download of municipal statistics data relevant for this study (including non-publishable data) and indicators used to compile the Quality of Life Index. However, the study, economic analysis and mathematical modelling based on these data are planned for implementation in the second half of 2023, as the first available data for 2022 are due in May-June 2023; - An initial set of proposals to address the issues addressed in this study were collected and formulated. Within the framework of the second stage (July - November 2023), the following were carried out: - Analysing the dynamics of socio-economic development of Russian cities in 2019-2022 based on state statistics data (including a separate analysis for megacities - the federal cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg); - analysing the dynamics of revenues and expenditures of the budgets of Russian cities based on published data of municipal legal acts and information from the Ministry of Finance of Russia; - analysis of the development of the creative potential of cities under the conditions of external shocks in 2020-2022, based on a specialised questionnaire survey of the relevant regional and municipal agencies; - modelling and economic analysis of the development of Russian cities under sanctions pressure; - elaboration of proposals to improve the sustainability of Russian cities in the conditions of external shocks in 2020-2022, including the elaboration of measures of state support for urban development.