Development of a Model Toolkit for Forecasting Gross Regional Product and Key Socio-Economic Indicators of Regional Development[Разработка Модельного Инструментария Прогнозирования Валового Регионального Продукта И Ключевых Социально-Экономических Показателей Развития Региона]

The object of the study was the Russian economy and the types of activities of individual regions. The main purpose of the study was to build a model for forecasting the gross regional product (GRP) by the production method. The methodology of the work consisted in conducting a comprehensive economic analysis, building econometric and balance models of individual segments of the national economy, building regional intersectoral balances The work contains: justification of the formation of retrospective data series in the statistical classifier OKVED2; study of the statistical dependence of the output of the economic sectors of the region on the main macro indicators; construction of a production function that predicts gross output by economic sectors based on retrospective data; testing of production functions for the economic sectors of the region; identification of the interconnection of regional economic sectors on the basis of inter-sectoral balance; development of scenario parameters for the medium-term regional forecast within the conservative, baseline and target scenarios; conclusions containing suggestions for appropriate use the results of the study to clarify economic policy measures. The results obtained in the work are meaningful for the organization of model studies, the need for which is determined by the Order of the Ministry of Economy No. 124 dated May 13, 2019 "On approval of the recommended form for the main indicators submitted by the executive authorities of the Subjects of the Russian Federation To the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation to develop a forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the medium term, and methodological recommendations for the development, adjustment, monitoring of medium -term forecasts of socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation".