Development of Technology of Personal and Professional Diagnostics and Assessment of Management Potential Using Models of Forecasting Analytics[Разработка Технологии Личностно-Профессиональной Диагностики И Оценки Управленческого Потенциала С Использованием Моделей Прогнозной Аналитики]

The research work is devoted to the technology of personal and professional diagnostics and assessment of the managerial potential of the public administration system leaders. The purpose of the study is to improve the accuracy of forecasting the assessment of the management potential of current and potential leaders of the public administration system based on the use of a holistic diagnostic complex developed on the basis of a general methodology and the construction of predictive analytical models. The main research methodology based a three-component model of managerial readiness, the technology of its assessment based on personal and professional diagnostics of managerial potential and a comprehensive analysis of the personal, professional and managerial resources of a leader in the context of a personality-oriented approach to management. The result of the work is two predictive models that are based on the analysis of the empirical data using predictive analytics methods. The first of them demonstrates predictive accuracy in terms of the coincidence of the real management level and the predicted level of management readiness. The second, to a greater extent, acts as a means of assessing management potential. The constructed predicative model can be used as a tool for express forecasting for heads of state bodies, as well as managers and specialists of personnel services in the system of the state civil service. It is also possible to use it in the development of individual programs for personal and professional development.