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Model of the real exchange rate of the ruble with Markov mode switches
[Модель Реального Обменного Курса Рубля С Марковскими Переключениями Режимов]

Author

Listed:
  • Polbin, Andrei (Полбин, Андрей)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • Shumilov, Andrey (Шумилов, Андрей)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • Bedin, Andrey (Бедин, Андрей)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • Kulikov, Alexander (Куликов, Александр)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

Abstract

The paper analyzes the relationship between the real Russian ruble exchange rate and real oil prices using the error correction model with Markov regime switching, which allows for changes in exchange rate policy. It is found that during the period 1999-2018 real exchange rate dynamics was characterized by two clearly distinguishable regimes, one with fast and the other with slow adjustment to long-term equilibrium in response to oil price shocks. Further model testing shows that long-term relationship between real exchange rate and oil price is invariant to regime change. It is also found that, despite adoption of a floating exchange rate policy in 2014, inflexible real exchange rate regime has been periodically identified in recent years. This could be due to the new budget rule, according to which Russian Ministry of Finance in February 2017 started purchasing foreign currencies in amount of excess oil and gas earnings of the federal budget.

Suggested Citation

  • Polbin, Andrei (Полбин, Андрей) & Shumilov, Andrey (Шумилов, Андрей) & Bedin, Andrey (Бедин, Андрей) & Kulikov, Alexander (Куликов, Александр), 2020. "Model of the real exchange rate of the ruble with Markov mode switches [Модель Реального Обменного Курса Рубля С Марковскими Переключениями Режимов]," Working Papers 102001, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnp:wpaper:102001
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    Keywords

    real effective exchange rate; Russia; oil prices; Markov regime switching model; error correction model.;
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