Development of numerical methods for assessing the impact of the reform of the oil and gas sector[Разработка Численных Методов Оценки Последствий Реформирования Нефтегазового Сектора]

Over the past few years, a number of changes in the tax system have been carried out in the Russian oil sector. Its main goal was to increase investment in oil production, increase the utilization of refining capacity, and increase refining depth. However, today the configuration of the tax system involves the actual subsidization of the economy by undervalued oil prices (relative to world). Only part of the subsidy reaches the final consumer, while the other part remains in the oil industry (about 1.7% of GDP), which covers its inefficiency. The mechanism does not work, because it does not take into account the change in the structure of the market. On 3.08.2018, final tax maneuver in the oil industry were adopted to complete the work begun. It is interesting to compare two variant of calculation the final tax maneuver. The first one does not taking into account the modernization programs for oil refinery and cost distribution of the VIOCs over the entire production chain, the second one do it. It is assumed that the second option is more efficient in terms of the ratio of the benefits and costs of the state. The main aim of the paper is modeling of the Russian oil market, taking into account the economy of individual refineries and changes in the tax regulation of the market. The multi-period, multi-product model for optimizing the value chain of the oil industry N. Moradi Nasab et al (2016) was chosen as the basis. It was simplified due to the restriction of data that is publicly available: only pipeline transport is considered; refineries produce only light and fuel oil; there is no possibility of storing reserves and expanding capacity. Calculations demonstrate the possibility of the model were carried out according to all refineries and oil complexes of the Lukoil. The optimization problem solution have shown that taking into account the modernization of production capacity and profits (costs) generated by the company at past (subsequent) production stages leads to more efficient, in terms of the state budget, industry subsidies. It can be reduced subsidy by about 15% for the Lukoil (market share is 20%). Tax system parameters adjustment to the change market structure allows them achieve their goals more effective without creating conditions for subsidizing inefficiency. Consequently, with detailed data available across the industry, model calculations can be extended to the entire industry, and technology changes can be taken into account (expanding capacity of pipelines, storage facilities, developing new fields, etc).