Theoretical approaches to forecasting regional macro-indicators[Теоретические Подходы К Прогнозированию Региональных Макропоказателей]

The work is devoted to the analysis of existing theoretical models for forecasting regional macro-indicators and the study of the possibility of forecasting Russian data based on the selected theoretical approaches. A comparative analysis of theoretical approaches to modeling regional data is carried out. The approaches considered include diversification indices based on various economic theory, analysis of the possibility of using a composite welfare index as a proxy variable for the economic situation, and application of dynamic and non-linear models to regional data. The study was conducted on data on a set of macro indicators (CPI, GRP per capita, unemployment rate, average per capita income, etc.) in all regions of Russia, as well as for regions united by federal districts and by clusters determined on the basis of theoretical approaches. On the Russian data, various diversification indices were analyzed, and ensembles of neural networks and vector autoregressions were constructed, including taking into account the spatial dependence between the indicators.