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Population forecasting and analysis of demographic heterogeneity of Russia
[Демографическое Прогнозирование И Анализ Демографической Неоднородности России]

Author

Listed:
  • Shulgin, Sergey (Шульгин, Сергей)

    (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • Scherbov, Sergey (Щербов, Сергей)

    (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

Abstract

In this work, we develop and test a methodology for constructing a probabilistic multi-regional demographic forecast of Russia until 2050. According to the forecast, by 2050 the median population will be 134.9 million people with a 90% confidence interval from 125.8 million to 147.4 million people. The median age increases from 39.4 years in 2019 to 44.3 years (41.7 - 47.8) in 2050, however, the promising median age (estimated by the base year 2018) grows to 39.8 (33, 7–43.8). Our estimates show that the optimistic scenarios of demographic development are the scenarios of the most optimistic 5-10% of the demographic trajectories that we analyze.

Suggested Citation

  • Shulgin, Sergey (Шульгин, Сергей) & Scherbov, Sergey (Щербов, Сергей), 2020. "Population forecasting and analysis of demographic heterogeneity of Russia [Демографическое Прогнозирование И Анализ Демографической Неоднородности России]," Working Papers 032013, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
  • Handle: RePEc:rnp:wpaper:032013
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