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What might US Withdrawal from the World Trade Organization mean for New Zealand?

Author

Listed:
  • Welvaert, Mieke

    (New Zealand Institute of Economic Research)

  • Torshizian, Eliya

    (New Zealand Institute of Economic Research)

  • Maralani, Milad

    (New Zealand Institute of Economic Research)

Abstract

Modelling by NZIER suggests that New Zealand medium term exposure to US withdrawal from World Trade Organisation (WTO) is surprisingly limited. We modelled five different scenarios of global and New Zealand responses to the US imposing tariff rates last seen in the great depression. While impact is negative for both the US and China in all scenarios, the change in New Zealand GDP is less than 1%.

Suggested Citation

  • Welvaert, Mieke & Torshizian, Eliya & Maralani, Milad, 2020. "What might US Withdrawal from the World Trade Organization mean for New Zealand?," NZIER Working Paper 2020/2, New Zealand Institute of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:nzierw:2020_002
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    File URL: https://www.nzier.org.nz/publications/what-might-us-withdrawal-from-the-world-trade-organization-mean-for-new-zealand
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cge modelling; trade; WTO;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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