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A Price Ceiling and the Reallocation of Housing Supply: Evidence from Brazil’s Minha Casa Minha Vida

Author

Listed:
  • Samuel Bícego

    (Department of Economics, University of São Paulo)

  • André Luis Squarize Chagas

    (Department of Economics, University of São Paulo)

Abstract

We examine how the price ceiling in Brazil’s Minha Casa Minha Vida program relates to the composition of new housing supply. Combining administrative records with dwelling-level launch data, we construct a continuous measure of similarity to projects contracted under the program. After 2009, supply below the applicable ceiling became substantially more concentrated in MCMV-oriented dwelling types, and this differential persisted across subsequent ceiling revisions. The pattern is robust to alternative score constructions and classification cutoffs. By contrast, the flatter score-price gradient below the ceiling predates the program. The evidence is consistent with supply reorganization toward the eligible segment.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel Bícego & André Luis Squarize Chagas, 2026. "A Price Ceiling and the Reallocation of Housing Supply: Evidence from Brazil’s Minha Casa Minha Vida," TD NEREUS 11-2026, Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS).
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:nereus:023115
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy

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