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Drought in the Sertão versus Violence in the City: A Study on the Brazilian Semi-Arid Region

Author

Listed:
  • Lauro Nogueira

    (Postgraduate Program in Economics PPE/UERN - CCSAH/UFERSA)

  • Fábio Lúcio Rodrigues

    (Postgraduate Program in Economics PPE/UERN)

  • Wallace Patrick Santos de Farias Souza

    (Postgraduate Program in Economics PPGE-UFPB)

  • Jevuks Matheus de Araújo

    (Postgraduate Program in Economics PPGE-UFPB)

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate how water scarcity and periods of drought can affect firearm homicide rates in the Brazilian semi-arid region between 2002 and 2020. To this end, the methodology of inference in counterfactual distributions proposed by Chernozhukov, Fernández-Val and Melly (2013) was employed. The main findings indicate that periods of severe drought have a significant impact on homicide rates in the semi-arid region. These effects are more pronounced when associated with factors such as the presence of rural municipalities and the migration process. In other words, there is strong evidence that drought in the hinterlands/countryside contributes to the increase in crime rates in both urban and rural municipalities. Additionally, the decomposition of the results revealed that periods of extreme drought, coupled with other unfavorable factors, act as triggers for the increase in homicide rates in the Brazilian semi-arid region, significantly exacerbating conditions of vulnerability during these adverse climatic shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Lauro Nogueira & Fábio Lúcio Rodrigues & Wallace Patrick Santos de Farias Souza & Jevuks Matheus de Araújo, 2025. "Drought in the Sertão versus Violence in the City: A Study on the Brazilian Semi-Arid Region," TD NEREUS 06-2025, Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS).
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:nereus:021486
    DOI: R10
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