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Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author

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  • Kang, Munsu

    (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP))

Abstract

This study investigates the climate change impacts on agriculture and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). SSA is the most vulnerable region responding to the weather shocks such as drought and flood. Furthermore, more than half of population in SSA are engaged in agricultural production that is highly affected by the rainfall pattern and temperature increases. For this reason, disruption of agriculture caused by the weather shock also can increase the probability of conflict such as demonstration and riot. This study focuses on 43 SSA countries after excluded small islands. Using scenario analysis, we find that temperature increases rather than precipitation might affect maize and sorghum production negatively while it is unclear for the rice production. We also find that increases in average temperature and maximum temperature might increase the probability of conflicts even if the effects of climate on riot and demonstration are U-shape pattern while it is reverse U-shape for battle and civilian conflicts.

Suggested Citation

  • Kang, Munsu, 2022. "Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Economy Brief 22-22, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2022_022
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    Keywords

    Climate change; agriculture; conflict; sub-Saharan Africa;
    All these keywords.

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