Shift in Central Asia’s Global Value Chains after the Ukraine War and Policy Implications for Korea-Central Asia Economic Cooperation

This report rigorously analyzes the structural shifts in Central Asia’s global value chains (GVCs) following the Russia–Ukraine war and derives new directions for economic cooperation between Korea and Central Asia. As unprecedented Western economic sanctions against Russia have persisted and are likely to remain in place for an extended period, it is essential to examine how these sanctions structurally affect Central Asia’s GVC participation. Central Asian economies are currently mobilizing national efforts to strengthen export competitiveness in pursuit of stable economic growth. Reflecting this, the study focuses on the export side of Central Asian trade and identifies how sanctions on Russia have re-shaped the region’s trade structure. At the same time, in a global environment marked by deepening trade fragmentation, raising the quality of Korea–Central Asia economic cooperation requires cooperation strategies that explicitly take into account how sanctions are altering Central Asia’s GVC linkages. Accordingly, the report pursues two main objectives. First, it provides an econometrically rigorous analysis of the structural changes in Central Asia’s GVCs since the Russia–Ukraine war, treating major geopolitical shocks as external shocks to the region’s trade structure. Second, based on these analytical findings, it proposes a new strategic direction for Korea–Central Asia economic cooperation that responds to the altered trade environment and supports Central Asia’s long-term growth and industrial upgrading.