코로나19가 무역에 미치는 영향 (Analysis of Economic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Trade)

위기에 대한 선행 연구는 금융 또는 정치적 위기가 경제성장 및 실업에 미치는 파급효과에 집중되어 있었고, 팬데믹이 무역에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구는 상대적으로 드물었다. 본 연구는 코로나19가 수출에 미치는 영향, 그리고 사스·메르스 등 코로나19 이전에 발생했던 팬데믹이 무역에 미치는 동태적 파급효과를 분석한다. 이에 기초하여 팬데믹 심각성으로 인한 경제성과의 차이를 살펴보고 방역의 경제적 의미를 포함하여 다양한 정책적 시사점을 도출한다. Although many studies have documented that financial and political crises are associated with severe recessions, little attention has been paid to pandemic crises. Furthermore, they focus on estimating the effect of the crises on economic growth and unemployment, but not on trade. With deepening global value chains, the growth of trade exceeds that of GDP, and countries are increasingly exposed to foreign risks or shocks. International trade therefore is no more derived transactions but a crucial factor driving economic growth. This paper makes progress understanding the economic effects of the Covid-19 by investigating the impact of the previous 21-century pandemics and the Covid-19 on trade. To study how long the negative effects of the pandemics persist, we also estimate the effect of these health crises on trade, both in the onset year of the crisis as well as the dynamic effects over time. An another important question on the economic effects of the pandemics is whether pandemics are demand shocks or supply shocks. This is a fundamental question for both economists and policymakers, because it helps design effective policy responses to future health crises. Yet there were few evidence-based arguments based on similar events in the past. (the rest omitted)