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신흥국의 국가리스크 비교분석 및 시사점 (Comparative Analysis and Implications of Developing Country Risk)

Author

Listed:
  • Moon , Jin-Young

    (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy)

  • Kim , Yun-ok

    (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy)

  • Lee , Minyoung

    (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy)

Abstract

Korean Abstract: 세계 경제에서 신흥시장과 개도국이 차지하는 비중이 커지고 국제사회에서도 G20의 위상이 강화되며 정치·경제적으로 신흥국이 부상하고 있다. 신흥국의 경제성장 잠재력은 성장 여력이 상대적으로 정체된 국내와 선진시장을 대체할 수 있는 기회를 제공하지만 다른 선진시장에서는 고려하지 못한 위험 요인이 나타날 수 있다는 점 때문에 리스크를 측정하고 관리할 수 있는 방안이 필요하다. 본 연구는 해외에서 국가리스크를 전문으로 평가하는 기관의 사례를 고찰하여 활용할 수 있는 경제 및 정치, 사회 지표를 선정하고 국가 간 리스크 비교가 가능하도록 수치화하는 분석 체계를 개발하였다. 각 국가별로 경제리스크와 정치·사회 리스크를 종합하여 국가리스크 순위를 도출하고 개별 리스크 간의 가중치 변화가 국가리스크 순위에 미치는 영향도 분석하였다. English Abstract: The share of emerging markets and developing countries in the global economy is growing, and the status of G20 in the international society is also being strengthened. Considering the trend, the economic and political growth of developing countries can be regarded not only as opportunities to replace domestic and developed markets, whose growth potential is declining relatively, but also as risks. Therefore, measuring and managing the risk of developing countries is essential. Given this background, this study selected economic, political, and social indicators to measure risks, referencing the cases of professional country risk rating agencies, and developed an analytical framework to enable comparisons among countries. Furthermore, this study derived comprehensive country risk ranking by merging the economic, political, and social risk indicators together, and also analyzed the impact of weight change on the risk rating.

Suggested Citation

  • Moon , Jin-Young & Kim , Yun-ok & Lee , Minyoung, 2013. "신흥국의 국가리스크 비교분석 및 시사점 (Comparative Analysis and Implications of Developing Country Risk)," Policy Reference 13-27, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:kiepre:2013_027
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2444496
    Note: Downloadable document is in Korean.
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