중ㆍASEAN 분업구조 및 결정요인 분석 (Trade Patterns and Determinants of Vertical and Horizontal Intra-Industry Trade between ASEAN and China)

Korean Abstract: 중국과 아세안은 세계의 공장과 세계의 부품생산기지로 부상함과 동시에 각각 한국의 1위와 2위 교역파트너라는 점에서 매우 중요한 시장으로 평가 받고 있다. 이에 더해 중국과 아세안 간의 교역 역시 급증하고 있다. 특히 중국은 2007년을 전후해 아세안의 최대 교역파트너로 등장하였고 2012년에는 양 지역 간 교역 규모가 4,000억 달러를 넘어섰다. 중국 측에서도 아세안은 3대 교역파트너로 자리잡았다. 이러한 시점에 중국과 아세안 간의 산업별 및 생산공정별 역내교역과 분업구조가 그동안 어떻게 변화하여 왔는지, 또 변화를 이끈 결정요인이 무엇인지를 분석해보았다. English Abstract: This research attempts to analyse composition of trade patterns and determinants of Horizontal and Vertical Intra-industry Trade between ASEAN and China. We decompose trade in goods into three parts: one-way trade, vertical intra-industry trade, and horizontal intra-industry trade based on the methodologies proposed by Fontagn and Freudenberg (1997) and Greenaway, Hine and Milner (1994). According to the results, one-way trade has continued to take substantial part in total trade between China and ASEAN, while the vertical intra-industry trade has been increased significantly over the past two decades. Especially, this trends appears in trade between Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam and China. Our empirical analysis shows that the intensified vertical specialization structure between ASEAN and China over the period from 1992 to 2012 is caused by foreign direct investment between the two regions as well as other variables such as bilateral distance (trade costs), common language, economic size and income differences. The main findings of this paper provide the following implications for Korea. First, as ASEAN and China are the first and second export markets to Korea, Korea needs to put more effort to expand its export and market share in China and ASEAN by conducting policy relative to trade facilitation including the reduction in trade cost. Second, since ASEAN’s export to China is increasing especially in the electronic and machinery sectors, Korea needs to develop a strategy to diversify its relative production network. Third, to maintain and expand Korea’s proportion in the East Asian intra-trade, Korea should further develop its parts and components industry and make efforts to sufficiently benefit from the East Asian production networks. Last but not least, Korea could utilize the on-going FTA negotiations with China and ASEAN countries to develop a closer link among the structure of Korea-China-ASEAN division of labors.