글로벌 통상환경의 변화와 포스트 나이로비 다자통상정책 방향 (Korea's Multilateral Trade Polices in the Changing Global Trade Landscape)

Korean Abstract: 세계적으로 반무역자유화 정서가 확산되는 가운데 국제무역이 구조적으로 감소하고 있고 선진국을 중심으로 하는 복수국간협상이 확산되고 있다. 또한 파리기후변화협약의 이행으로 무역과 환경이 조화를 이루어야 하는 시대가 도래하였다. 본 보고서는 이러한 글로벌 통상환경에서 나타난 주요한 변화를 고려하여 나이로비 각료회의 이후 우리나라가 취해야 할 다자통상정책의 방향을 단기 DDA 협상대책과 중장기 정책방향으로 나누어 제시하였다. English Abstract: The WTO's Tenth Ministerial Conference, held in Nairobi on December 2015, concluded with the adoption of the "Nairobi Package", several ministerial decisions on agriculture, cotton and least-developed countries. The Nairobi Package includes a historic decision to eliminate agricultural export subsidies, the most important reform of international trade rules in agriculture since the WTO was founded. The biggest disagreement among WTO members, however, goes beyond specific substantive issues: it is about the future of the Doha agenda and the WTO's negotiating function itself. While developing countries wished to continue with negotiations, industrialized nations, chief among them the United States, called for an end to the Doha Round. The Nairobi Ministerial Declaration also acknowledges that WTO members "have different views" on the future of the Doha Round negotiations but notes the "strong commitment of all members to advance negotiations on the remaining Doha issues". In this situation, there have been significant changes in international trade since recent decades. First, trade growth has been anaemic since 2010. Already before the 2008 Global Crisis hit, the rate of growth of the ratio of global trade to GDP had slowed considerably. Most recent data show trade values declining. Second, plurilateral negotiations are rapidly widespread in the WTO. In particular, developed members have pushed for more sectoral deals like the ITA-II. Currently, a similar deal on tariff reductions for environmental goods is being negotiated. More sectoral tariff liberalization of this sort might be a good area to pursue. Along the same lines, the trade in services talks going on in Geneva could be brought formally into the WTO framework. Third, at the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal, which is expected to affect a significant impact on global trade. At the heart of the Paris climate agreement are national-level plans, called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Although these INDCs are voluntary, they are considered a critical first step for an agreement designed to progressively ratchet up national commitments to collectively limit a global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial age levels. It is now time that we have to design a harmonization between trade and environments.