해외 곡물 확보를 위한 한국의 대응방안 (Measures to Secure a Stable Supply of Grain for Korea)

Korean Abstract: 최근 국제 곡물가격의 변동성 확대, 국제시장에서의 곡물 수급 불균형 심화, 유가 및 환율 불안정 등으로 인해 국내 곡물 수입구조의 개선 필요성이 제기되고 있다. 이 연구는 해외의존도가 높은 곡물을 안정적으로 확보할 수 있는 우리나라의 대응방안을 분석하기 위해 국내외 문헌조사와 통계분석을 통해 국제 곡물시장의 특징을 파악하고, 주요 곡물을 확보하기 위한 기존 노력을 점검하였다. 특히 현지 조사를 통해 중국과 일본의 곡물 확보 동향을 반영하고 일부 지표에 의존해온 종래의 분석방법에서 벗어나 곡물 도입 협력국가 모델 구축을 통한 정량분석체계를 활용하여 생산과 유통 기반을 연구하였다. 이를 토대로 농업개발과 농산물유통 분야에서 협력 잠재성이 높은 국가를 도출함으로써 기존 연구와 차별화하였다. 아울러 정부 곡물조달시스템 구축사업이 중단된 현 상황에서 해외 곡물을 안정적으로 확보할 수 있는 방안을 제시하였다. 연구결과에 따르면, 우리나라가 곡물거래에 주로 사용하는 공개경쟁입찰에 의한 플랫거래는 수입량 확보가 안정적이고 처리가 쉬운 장점이 있지만 가격변동에 탄력적으로 대응하지 못하는 단점이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 한편 해외 곡물 확보를 위해서는 해외 농업개발을 활성화하고 곡물조달시스템을 구축하는 것이 필요하다. 우리나라와 유사하게 곡물의 수입의존도가 높은 일본의 경우 장기계획 수립과 민관협력이 해외 농업개발사업의 성공요인인 것으로 분석되었다. 또 중국의 경우 막강한 자금력과 일관성 있는 정책을 바탕으로 해외 농업개발과 외국 농산물유통기업을 대상으로 한 인수합병을 빠르게 진전시키고 있다. 또한 이 연구는 향후 곡물 도입에서 협력가능성이 높은 국가를 도출하기 위해 각국의 농업 생산과 유통 지표를 활용하여 정량적 분석을 시도하였다. 이를 위해 곡물 도입 협력국가 모델을 설정하였으며 협력가능성을 지표화하여 소맥, 대두, 옥수수별로 곡물 도입의 잠재적인 협력대상국을 선정하였다. 이와 같은 분석결과는 각 곡물별 특성에 따른 협력대상국 진출전략을 차별화할 필요가 있음을 시사하고 있다. English Abstract: The world's food demand has been increasing due to population increase, increasing incomes of developing nations and the resulting changes in diets, and the increasing use of biofuels. However, grain production and exports is greatly dependent upon only a few countries, and with the recent global climate change, questions over sustainability have been increasing steadily. Korea's case looks particularly serious because most of its grain supply, except for rice, is imported This study analyzes how to secure a stable supply of grains with a high level of reliance on imports, and examines our current efforts to secure primary grains, which include wheat, corn, and soybean. It also looks at other countries in similar situations and their current trends in securing grain supply; potential partnerships with those countries are also discussed as well as policy implications. Our analysis suggests each grain needs to be matched with a partner country based on its characteristics and with a specialized plan. Also this study focuses on grain import trends and policies for grain procurement in China and Japan, whose sufficiency patterns look similar to ours and could pose political implications for our use. Based on the analysis, this study suggests the following tasks to secure a stable grain supply, with the first task being the national grain procurement system, initiated in 2010, which entails a joint effort between a private enterprise and the government to secure a grain distribution network and their intentions on selling grains domestically and also exporting to Korea or other countries nearby. In the long term, a national grain procurement system requires strategy, large capital, and expertise related to the international grain market, and ultimately requires participation from private enterprises with capital, professionalism, and a quick decision-making process. The second task is a long-term plan to support private enterprises by organizing an investment environment, ODA, provision of relevant information, and etc. For instance, Japan, whose sufficiency patterns look similar to ours, could pose political implications for our use. The effort by the Japanese government has lasted over a long period of time and has yielded success stories such as the Cerado farm in Brazil. Additionally, aside from the government, general trading companies played a key role in creating cooperation between private enterprises. The third task is supply and demand control via public stock increase. Expanding overseas agricultural development and securing an overseas grain distribution network stocks represent long-term plans, as we need to have a stable stores domestically in order to cope with sudden grain price hikes or supply restrictions in producing countries. The fourth task is risk management via domestic commodity futures listing. Domestic grain market insecurity spreads instantly and globally in the form of price fluctuations, and an ultimate solution call for a way to control risk in price fluctuations instead of simply securing grain supply. If a grain commodity future is listed on the domestic exchange, current spot trades will become more diversified, and we will have measures to minimize risk that comes with price fluctuations. And finally, we can invest in agriculture overseas with global cooperation. Securing a stable grain supply is not only Korea's concern but a universal condition for survival, and it must be addressed by global cooperation. Many countries have realized the importance of agriculture and created investment funds to support agriculture from a long-term perspective and to yield not only quick monetary results but also improvements in other grain-supply-related areas. Likewise, the Korean government must look further and consider aggressive cooperation and investment in not only grain production but also the front-back industry including transportation, storage, and distribution by means of close partnerships with countries in similar situations.